If a guy placed third at a cattle-judging contest at the local FFA convention, don’t be surprised to see that on the capsules and hear coaches talking about how the guy is a leader, is analytical, pays great attention to detail and has a great mind.

As each signing class is announced hope springs eternal, everybody is undefeated, a lot of help is on the way, there are a bunch of difference-makers in the group, and various other clichés apply.
The Signing Day hoopla is a haven for hyperbole and a feel-good time that can often lead to a false sense of optimism for fans and unwarranted and unfair expectations for coaches and players.
But all that doesn’t stop recruiting-based Web sites like Scout.com and Rivals.com, and guys like Max Emfinger, Jamie Newberg and Otis Kirk from making a name and some serious cash for themselves in tracking a 17 year-old’s every move for sometimes more than a year.

For a select few, the hype carries on through their career. For most others, they’re forgotten for good by the time their first fall practice starts and they’re buried on the depth chart.

The scrutiny and exposure for recruiting is much more intense at larger schools, but even at a school like UCA, the diehard fans want to know who will comprise the next crop of freshmen before the kids’ high school senior seasons have begun.

But potential carries far more weight than results in the eyes of many.
Recruiting classes are ranked, players are assigned stars, and the general populace uses that to determine the coaching staff’s competence and ability to recruit, and also to gauge the program’s future.

Not nearly enough is adequate attention given to an after-the-fact analysis of a class.
So, following the big announcement of the future of UCA’s football program, we’ve decided to take a look at part of what was the future of UCA’s football program two years ago.

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In 2004, coming off a 5-6 season, the Bears signed 15 players with nine coming from the high school ranks and six in the form of transfers from other colleges and universities.
Four of those signed were in-state kids, with two coming form Louisiana, one each from Florida and Mississippi and eight from the football-rich lands of Texas. In recruiting circles, it is widely accepted that getting players from Texas is the key to success.

But, they do you no good if they don’t or can’t play. Of course, all that doesn’t show up on Signing Day.

Way back when, Conque announced the signing of the tight end that would fill Landon Trusty’s large shoes – a guy from Brownsboro, Texas named Austin Cade.

“He’ll bring toughness to that position,” Conque said at the time. “He’s got a real mean streak and a defensive mentality.”

That played out pretty much as planned – as Cade rarely took the brunt of a hit and favored lowering his shoulder to juking.

In his two years as a Bear, Cade caught 51 passes for 745 yards and 12 touchdowns in helping UCA to 19 wins during the span.

Dathan Johnson, a cornerback from Allen, Texas, drew praise from Conque on Signing Day as being “very disciplined and very productive” and that, too, came to pass as Johnson worked his way into a starting role as a freshman.

Two other Texas natives – linebacker Dewayne Hall (Texarkana) and offensive lineman Thurston Hughes (Arlington) have also been solid contributors for the past two seasons with Hall ringing up 42 tackles and 3.5 sacks and Hughes providing valuable offensive line depth.
The other half of Texas wasn’t quite so kind to the Bears, however.
The Bears did get one good year out of Edmundo Martinez, who was a key member of the offensive line in 2004.

Tom Brown, who was brought in to compete for the center position, was a 2003 first-team All SWJCFC selection, and played for the Katy High School team that was ranked No. 3 in the nation by USA Today.
But, he never played for the Bears.

Darron Sheppard, another center prospect, was heralded as “one of the best football players his coach has had since going to Longview”, “very strong”, and “a fine young man who’ll be a great ambassador and a fine football player for this university.”

Other than the last part, that may very well be dead-on.

Otis Walton, a linebacker from Hooks, was recruited by SMU and was an All-State, All-District, All-Northeast Texas and his conference’s Most Valuable Player.

He finished his brief career at UCA with fewer tackles than ex-UCA quarterback Zak Clark.
Wide receiver Terrance Ard, a Grambling transfer, never panned out.
Neither did most of the in-state guys.

Nathan Brown, the Russellville native who was the last UCA signee to fax in his National Letter of Intent that day, redshirted during the 2004 season before taking over the starting job midseason in 2005 and guiding the Bears to the NCAA Division II quarterfinals while throwing for 2,410 yards and 25 touchdowns in split duty with senior Chris Reil.

Bo Rhodes, a wide receiver from state champion Pulaski Academy, was recruited by Memphis and was an all-state selection in both football and track, and was all-conference in soccer.

He finished his high school career with 153 receiving yards and three touchdowns in the state championship game.

That was his last game.

Carl Clites, from just down the road in Vilonia, was expected to redshirt from the outset, but was probably expected to play at some point.

He is no longer with the team.

Jeremy Ford redshirted last season and earned a starting spot along the UCA offensive line this year as a freshman and looks to be a another solid contributor from the 2004 class.
Thomas Garland took over the punting job immediately and kept it for two years, earning all-conference honors and averaging better than 40 yards a punt in 2004.

Greg Mills, a transfer from Troy listed at 305 pounds at the time of his signing, was a big cog in the Bears’ defensive line the last two years.

The status of his senior season was in doubt at one juncture due to a legal issue, but things worked out and he was able to come back and finish up. In his two years at UCA he recorded 54 tackles and four sacks.

Of the 15 announced signees on Signing Day 2004, the Bears got what appears to be three key four-year contributors in Nathan Brown, Ford and Johnson.

Cade, Garland, Hall, Hughes and Mills gave UCA two good years.
UCA got one solid season from Martinez.

The other six –  Ard, Tom Brown, Clites, Rhodes, Sheppard and Walton –  were never contributors. That’s 40 percent.

If you get four years of playing time for 15 players, you have 60 seasons.
If the Bears get four from each of Nathan Brown, Ford and Johnson, in addition to the years from Cade, Garland, Hall, Hughes, Mills and Martinez – that’s 23 seasons.

That turns out to 38.3 percent of possible playing time used by that group.
Is that good, bad, average? Without any comparison points, it’s hard to say.

Is it a negative reflection on the coaching staff or the individuals in the class?
Not necessarily. Oftentimes, people are merely victims of circumstance.

And circumstance is something that cannot be forecasted, and is never taken into account into the wild world of recruiting hype overkill.